Outside view

What Goldman Sachs is forecasting

Just for context — Goldman released a 48-team probability model in late May. None of this affects pool scoring, but it's a useful sanity check while you're building your ticket.

Top picks

Probability of winning the tournament outright.

1Spain
26%
2France
19%
3Argentina
14%
4Brazil
8%
5England
5%

Everyone else: under 5% each. The long tail of 43 teams shares the remaining ~28%.

Predicted Final

Spain

over

Argentina

MetLife Stadium · July 19, 2026

Host nations · Round of 16 odds

Goldman's probability that each host advances out of group play.

Mexico

68%

reach R16

Canada

50%

reach R16

United States

39%

reach R16

The model

Poisson regression trained on nearly 20,000 international matches since 1978. Inputs include FIFA Elo ratings, recent form, attacking strength, and geographic factors. Goldman has run a version of this model for every World Cup since 2010.

Coverage of the May 2026 report: Bloomberg · CNN

Other news

Latest 2026 coverage from major outlets, refreshed every 10 minutes. Click through to read at the source.

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